Bracket 1

No. 4 North Carolina

How They Got Here: Once an Omaha staple in the late 2000s, the Diamond Heels have returned to the sport’s biggest stage in their fourth year under head coach Scott Forbes. Building upon a regional appearance in 2023, North Carolina captured the ACC regular season championship this spring, winning 47 games while sporting a top 30 national ranking in WHIP and runs per game.

Junior outfielder Vance Honeycutt is one of the best all-around talents in the country, seeking a storybook ending to a three-year career that may go down to be one of the best ever at Chapel Hill. The ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year mashed 26 home runs while stealing 28 bases at the top of the order, headlining a deep and consistent lineup that featured six regulars with plus-300 batting averages and over 50 RBIs. Honeycutt, Anthony Donofrio, and Casey Cook all eclipsed 1.000 in the OPS category, reliably producing for the power bats of Parks Haber, Alberto Osuna, and Luke Stephenson on the infield. 

The ACC’s best stable of arms by ERA, Jason DeCaro and Shea Sprague did their jobs on Friday and Saturday with WHIPs under 1.30, but the Heels bullpen is what’s to fear here. Southpaw Dalton Pence was arguably the nation’s top closer this spring, notching a 2.04 ERA over 53 innings with 71 strikeouts and a .169 opponent batting average. The setup arms are just as lethal, as Matthew Matthijs won 12 games out of the bullpen, and Matt Poston struck out three batters for every walk in 27 appearances. 

The selection committee did UNC no favors by sending reigning national champion LSU to Chapel Hill and pairing that regional up with a stacked foursome in Tucson. Unwavered by the strenuous circumstances, the Heels came up clutch in consecutive walk-offs over the Tigers and Mountaineers of West Virginia to clinch a regional championship and set the stage for the program’s first trip to Omaha since 2018.

How They Can Win It All: The depth of the Tar Heels bullpen is borderline ridiculous. Pence, Matthijs, and Poston all hit the mid-90s on the radar gun with strong compliments of breaking stuff. Kyle Percival, Aidan Haugh, Ben Peterson, and Connor Bovair have all proven themselves capable of being in high-leverage spots, too. While no lead is safe in this sport, considering how UNC can hit all throughout the order, this array of late-inning arms is quite the uphill climb for opponents. With the necessary run support, clawing back against Carolina will be awfully difficult, not to mention how clutch this team has been lately.

Why They Won’t: While their starting pitching has mostly done its job, UNC’s top arms aren’t as dominant as the other rotations in Omaha. DeCaro has allowed 40 walks on the year, Sprague can get hit around at times, and UNC pitching as a whole holds the second-lowest K/9 rate of the field. A lack of CWS experience and dominance from starting pitching has stopped plenty of talented teams in the past. 

X-Factor: Gavin Gallaher enjoyed a stellar freshman campaign at third base but has found just three hits over the team’s last five games with one walk. As the five-hitter in UNC’s spread-out lineup, Gallaher’s slow start to the postseason has highlighted a drop in runs per game for UNC from 8.7 over the season to 5.8 in the NCAA Tournament. His production at the plate and presence on the bases are vital for Stephenson and Osuna to do extra damage toward the bottom of the order.

No. 12 Virginia

How They Got Here: For the seventh time in 15 years, Brian O’Connor has guided once-unknown Virginia to the endgame, looking to improve on a two-and-BBQ outing at Charles Schwab last year. The Hoos’s biggest strength in another 40-win season has been a devastating offensive attack, which placed among the top five in the nation in hits, runs, batting average, and slugging percentage. 

Bringing back much of the lineup from last year’s Omaha run, seven starters hit over .333, and four had 80-plus hits. Bobby Whalen and Henry Godbout both rocked batting averages of .370, Harrison Didawick and Henry Ford combined for 40 home runs with 68 RBIs each, while holdovers Griff O’Ferrall, Ethan Anderson, and Casey Saucke totaled 57 doubles between them. Simply put, the Hoos can rake, and they needed to more often than not to win games. 

Evan Blanco was as good of a Friday starter as you can ask for in the ACC, tossing nearly 100 innings with just as many strikeouts, but the Cavaliers struggled to figure out the rest of their arms behind him. In a slugfest-filled campaign, UVA allowed 10 hits per game, the most of any NCAA Tournament qualifier from the ACC, and their 5.39 team ERA isn’t pretty. Aside from Chase Hungate and Angelo Tonas, plenty of moving pieces in the bullpen didn’t provide much relief either. 

Luckily for O’Connor, Jay Woolfolk and Joe Savino stepped up down the stretch on the mound, helping solidify its rotation. As a result, the Hoos pitching shined at last in the postseason, where they dispatched near-host Mississippi State and red-hot Kansas State for another super-regional title.

How They Can Win It All: They’ve all been here before, and UVA was maybe a few bounces away from winning either of their one-run losses in Omaha last year. This time, they swept through Charlottesville off a scorching pitching staff that allowed just 16 runs over its last five games, never more than four in a single contest, as their bats eventually revved up at home. Having averaged nine-and-a-half runs per game in 2024, if their run of form on the mound continues, Virginia could roll through this bracket. 

Why They Won’t: Virginia’s strong pitching is newfound, and neither Mississippi State nor Kansas State presented the balance of high-caliber bats Virginia will see the rest of the way. Against tournament teams in the regular season, Virginia surrendered 8.75 runs per game in 13 contests. While they’ve shown they can hit with anyone, a still uncertain rotation and high ERAs in the bullpen flirt with fire against the explosive lineups they’ll face. It also can’t be forgotten that pitching ended up being their downfall here a year ago.

X-Factor: Jay Woolfolk has been a Swiss army knife on the mound for UVA this year, starting six games and making 23 appearances out of the bullpen. Having gone the bulk of the season as a reliever, Woolfolk pitched to an ERA in the 5s but got the ball and shoved a pair of quality starts in the team’s two postseason clinchers. He appears to be throwing the best he has all year and has shown the capability to start and relieve at a high level in his career. How Brian O’Connor deploys him, and if Woolfolk will continue to dominate hitters, will be intriguing and vital to UVA’s ability to keep runs off the board.

No. 1 Tennessee

How They Got Here: Tony Vitello and the Tennessee Volunteers have arguably been the faces of college baseball since 2021. A number one overall seed in 2022 sandwiched between two trips to Omaha has put the Vols back on the map, but they’ve yet to raise a championship banner on Rocky Top. If any iteration of the orange and white will change that, it’s this one. The nation’s top team for much of the season, Tennessee lost one series all year, leading the country in home runs by a wide margin while also repping a top-three ERA.

Much like the boisterous 2022 squad, this offense makes deafening noise on a nightly basis. Re-setting the program record for longballs, eight Vols clubbed double-digit dingers, with Christian Moore’s 32 being the new single-season record in Knoxville. Elsewhere in the infield, Billy Amick and Blake Burke supplied plenty of pop with 23 and 19 home runs, respectively, joining Moore and outfielders Dylan Dreiling and Kavares Tears in the 1.000 OPS club. 

On the bump, Drew Beam and Zander Sechrist were an awesome 1-2 punch, throwing strikes and limiting damage as the team’s top starters, seamlessly replacing Chase Dollander and Chase Burns. Options were plentiful on Sunday and out of the bullpen, with Chris Stamos, AJ Causey, and Dylan Loy succeeding in hybrid roles. At the same time, Aaron Combs, Nate Snead, Andrew Behnke, and Kirby Connell locked down the late innings with ERAs below four individually. All of these impact arms combined for the best WHIP in the country while leading the stacked SEC in ERA and K-BB ratio.

Aside from a blip in game two of the supers, Tennessee’s total effort has left opponents in the dust in a dominant run through the SEC Tournament and now into Omaha looking like the best version of themselves.

How They Can Win It All: No team has put it all together consistently over the course of this season like Tennessee has. Tony Vitello’s group is talented and experienced, checking every box in the field. If everything’s clicking, as it has all spring, it’s hard to imagine anyone stopping the Vols from the program’s first national title.

Why They Won’t: The overall number one seed hasn’t taken home the trophy since Miami did so 25 years ago. That notion has jinxed some all-time great squads, and the Vols already felt its power in 2022. Four-seeded Evansville showed Tennessee it isn’t invincible on its own field just last weekend as well, leading at some point in all three games.

X-Factor: Zander Sechrist may throw strikes more consistently than Drew Beam, but the senior lefty doesn’t specialize in strikeouts like his teammate. With just 16 walks on the year, he’ll give opponents pitches to hit, which can be as dangerous as it is safe, considering the collective offensive prowess of this field. Sechrist’s competence for outs against top-flight bats will be tested, as will his stretchability, throwing 66.1 innings of work all year. If someone knocks him out early, that could cause unseen problems for the Vols pitching staff. 

No. 8 Florida State

How They Got Here: One of the most consistent programs in college baseball history, Florida State rebounded from a disastrous first season under Link Jarrett for the program’s first 40-win season this decade. Starting and finishing the year strong, the Seminoles didn’t lose a game until late March and have won 10 of their last 12 to roll into the CWS.

The tip of the spear for the garnet and gold is college baseball’s version of Betts and Ohtani with ACC Player of The Year James Tibbs III and breakout sophomore Cam Smith. The outfielder Tibbs led the ACC in home runs, RBIs, and slugging percentage in the three-hole, while infielder Smith was one of 16 qualifiers in Divison 1 with a .400 batting average to set him up. Both have launched themselves high on MLB draft boards this summer, and they have plenty of support behind them in the powerful swings of Marco Dinges, Jamie Ferrer, and Max Williams. Collectively, FSU’s offense has been humming in the postseason, scoring 46 runs in their last three games to win the Tallahassee regional and super regional without much threat.

All-ACC lefty Jamie Arnold is a bona fide ace at the top of this rotation, currently third in the country with 155 strikeouts and a tremendous 2.77 ERA. The Seminoles pitch by the committee behind Arnold, and aside from Carson Dorsey haven’t found a true rotation throughout the season. A strong bullpen can offset this, though, which the ‘Noles have in Connor Hults and John Abraham consistently handing the rock to shutdown closer Brennen Oxford.

How They Can Win It All: Much like LSU last summer, the Seminoles are built off a three-headed monster of an ace and two big-run producers, with everyone else doing their job. Arnold, Tibbs, and Smith may not be Skenes, Crews, and White, but this trio hasn’t slowed down for a second all year and rises to the occasion frequently. Link Jarrett has done more with less in the past, helping ruin national championship hopes in Knoxville two years ago with Notre Dame, seemingly getting the best out of his players. If Arnold does what he’s capable of, and Tibbs and Smith propel the offense to supplement the pitching, who’s to say FSU can’t replicate the reigning champions?

Why They Won’t: The starting pitching behind Arnold is too much of a question mark. Dorsey pitched great in the tournament but had two short-lived outings in the ACC Tournament. Conner Whittaker and most other starters haven’t offered much length-wise lately, leaving a lot of extra responsibility for the bullpen whether or not they are handed a lead. Should FSU run into an off-night at the plate against an elite arm, the Seminoles could be in serious trouble staying in games without Arnold. 

X-Factor: Carson Dorsey. The Florida native threw 14 innings of two-run ball against Stetson and UConn but had been dinged for 15 runs in the last 8.2 innings thrown prior to the NCAA Tournament. What the junior Southpaw gives FSU as their No. 2 starter might just determine how long the Seminoles stick around this next week.

Bracket 2

No. 2 Kentucky

How They Got Here: College Baseball’s feel-good story in 2024 remains unfinished, as Big Blue Nation will soon descend upon Omaha for the first time ever. Unranked in D1Baseball’s preseason Top 25, Nick Mingione’s Kentucky Wildcats took a step past a regional title last year, playing an old-school brand of baseball that propelled them to the SEC regular season crown and the highest tournament seed in program history.

Offensively, Kentucky wreaks havoc on the basepaths in a way few other teams have in recent years. The team’s 118 swipes were easily the most in the SEC, with Émilien Pitre, Ryan Waldschmidt, and Devin Burkes combining for 68 of them, leading the charge for a squad that is in the top 50 nationally in on-base percentage. All-SEC first baseman Ryan Nicholson paced the team with 21 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Pitre and Nick Lopez had at least 50 runs knocked in of their own each. A pesky group that will sacrifice in any scenario, run up pitch counts, and put pressure on the defense, UK plates eight runs per game to this point and held opponents to a lot less.

While they scratch and claw effectively on offense, Kentucky’s pitching can impose their will on any lineup. Mason Moore and Trey Pooser have nasty stuff in the rotation, and each tossed 80+ innings with sub-5 ERAs. Dominic Himan has thrown good innings, and the bullpen is a pick-your-poison affair behind them. Closer Johnny Hummel allowed a mere .158 opponent batting average, setup man Ryan Hagenow gave up just four runs all season, and strong campaigns came out of Cameron O’Brien and Robert Hogan.

While not the flashiest team in the field, Kentucky simply gets it done night in and night out. The Wildcats breezed through the Lexington Regional with ease before taking down a seasoned Oregon State squad in the supers for its first trip to Omaha, being unblemished on the road there.

How They Can Win It All: The gloves play a big part at this point and the ‘Cats .980 fielding percentage is second to just Florida in this field. More importantly, UK doesn’t strike out at the plate, putting immense pressure on the opposition defensively for how hard they are to put away, and the added danger of runners on base. Nobody in this field manufactures runs like Kentucky, and the changes of speed their pitching offers is hard for any lineup to adjust to. Much to the style of the 2015 Kansas City Royals, UK’s varied pitching and unmatched offensive aggressiveness can wear opponents down to the point of defeat.

Why They Won’t: Inexperience. Mingione and Kentucky have never been to the College World Series before, and that matters. 

X-Factor: Ryan Waldschmidt holds the highest OBP of any Kentucky regular while swiping 24 bases this year. He’s cooled off in the postseason, though,going 0-7 in the super regionals. His performance at the top of the order, seting the table for the rest of the Wildcat lineup, will be critical for run production and passing the baton.

No. 10 North Carolina State

How They Got Here: Another ringless tournament staple, NC State is quiely one of the most consistent programs in the country and continued their winning ways in 2024. Despite stumbling in ACC play, the Wolfpack displayed their maturity in series victories over Virginia and North Carolina, and a road super regional victory, have won 12 of 15 to make it back to Omaha for the third time under Elliott Avent.

While not overly dominant in one faze of the game, the Wolfpack can make any opposing pitcher howl in despair. State boasts a powerful trio of home run hitters in Alec Makarewicz, Garrett Pennington and Jacob Cozart, who combined for 59 longballs between them this year. Standout sophomore Eli Serrano sets the table consistently hitting near-.300, Alex Sosa is swinging a hot bat in the postseason, and the rest of the lineup forms the hardest group to strike out in the Power Five.

State’s experience on the bump helps offset a six ERA, as starters Sam Highfill and Logan Whittaker have both made the trip to Omaha before. Both multi-year starters, Highfill shined bright against Jack Leiter and Vanderbilt as a freshman at the CWS, and Whittaker has displayed great strikeout stuff as of late. The ‘Pack’s bullpen is quite the speed change at the back. Jacob Dudan has triple-digit heat, Derrick Smith dodges barrels with a .178 opponent batting average, and the two are both capable of multiple innings and consecutive-day outings.

This is State’s second appearance at Omaha in four years, and they’re looking to finish a 2021 story that didn’t get its happy ending. Already knocking out No. 1 Arkansas and on the verge of the finals, a COVID outbreak took the chance out of their hands, something this team is determined not to let go this time around.

How They Can Win It All: The emotions of their controversial elimination in 2021, and an all-time snub in 2022 are as big of a motivating factor as you could get, but the 2024 Wolfpack are playing their best ball of the season right now. They don’t strike out, and have seen so much baseball over the years. Playing with a boulder on their shoulder, that edge is specific to the ‘Pack and can make a big difference.

Why They Won’t: Aside from not having a true specialty in the box score and a 10-14 mark away from home, NC State struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. Their .764 team OPS against southpaws is levels below the rest of the field, and they’ll be going up against the likes of Ryan Prager, Jac Caglianone, and Dominic Niman in their own bracket, not to mention Jamie Arnold, Dalton Pence, Evan Blanco, and Zander Sechrist on the other side.

X-Factor: Starting pitching. Sam Highfill and Logan Whittaker were on that 2021 team, Ryan Marohn gets outs, and the ‘Pack have gotten strong starts for the most part in the postseason. However, they sport the worst opponent OPS in the field, and allow more than six runs per game. Which version they get of this is everything for NC State.

No. 3 Texas A&M

How They Got Here: The Aggies were a preseason, and lived up to that hype all season long. Jim Schlossnagle’s boys are rough and tough in all facets of the game, top-ten nationally in ERA, WHIP and slugging percentage.

The Aggie lineup is as patient as it is deadly. Leading the nation in walks and seventh in OPS, there are threats to crush the ball all the way down. Eight qualifiers notched an OPS above .900, but none bigger than superstar sophomore Jace LaViolette’s astonishing 1.210 mark. His 28 home runs topped the team in the two-hole, and top MLB Draft prospect Braden Mongomery was right behind him with 27 while bringing in 85 runs. Unfortunately for A&M, the switch-hitting stud is shelved the rest of the way, but 22 home runs from freshman phenom Gavin Grahovac and consistent damage from Jackson Appell, Ted Burton, and Hayden Schott ease that blow. 

Their starting pitching isn’t as sexy as the lineup, but Ryan Prager put ogether a standout series of Friday starts, going 8-1 with a 3.10 ERA and 114 strikeouts to just 19 walks. Justin Lamkin threw plenty of strikes in the Saturday spot, and Shane Sdao emerged as a legitimate starter down the stretch.

When Evan Aschenbeck enters the game late, you might as well cue up the Aggie War Hymn. Across 28 games, the senior lefty has locked down nine saves, with a 72-8 K-BB ratio, and conceded just 12 earned runs through 65 innings. Brad Rudis, Chris Cortez, Brock Peery, and Zane Badmaev all pitched to sub-4 ERAs in the bullpen, cementing Texas A&M’s roster as one of the best in Omaha top-to-bottom.

While they stumbled down the stretch and left Hoover winless the Aggies found their in-season form in College Station, overcoming rival Texas in the regionals before out-slugging Oregon to get on its second flight to Omaha in the last three years.

How They Can Win It All: There’s no shortage of experience in the maroon and white. Jim Schlossnagle has taken three different programs to Omaha as one of the most successful active coaches in the game. There’s still pieces from the 2022 CWS squad that won two games in Omaha. This lineup is stacked with or without Montgomery and can jump on any arm at any point in the order. Considering the strength of their bullpen, if A&M puts teams in early deficits, things will get worse for opponents way before they get better.

Why They Won’t: They don’t have their best player. That usually doesn’t matter as much in baseball, but Braden Montgomery is as dynamic of a talent as we have in the sport, and unlike LaViolette has played at Omaha previously with Stanford. What he does on the field is irreplaceable and his experience is invaluable. The A&M order will sorely miss the SEC’s RBI leader, especially since they aren’t far removed from a team-wide slump through much of May.

X-Factor: The third outfielder. Filling Montgomery’s void in the lineup is virtually impossible. Travis Chestnut was the All-American’s replacement in the supers and hit just fine across 128 plate appearances this year, but he’s a 5-foot-7 utility man. Kaeden Kent had four hits and seven RBIs against Oregon last weekend, but he’s not a natural outfielder either and hasn’t started consistently since March. Whoever stays in the lineup in Omaha will have a lot of responsibility on their shoulders to even give some semblance to what Montgomery brings.

Florida 

How They Got Here: You could say Jac Caglianone alone here and that will do it justice, but I’ll elaborate for content sake. The Gators were one of few national championship favorites in February but shockingly played .500 ball all spring thanks to a shoddy offense and inconsistent pitching. 

All the while, the sport’s best player was mashing. Two-way phenom Jac Caglianone currently stands among the country’s top-six in batting average, home runs, OPS and total bases, while providing a team-high 72.2 innings on the bump. Outside of the top MLB Draft prospect in this CWS, the Gators were hard-pressed for offense. Only Ty Evans hit above .300, and UF is the worst team among the field in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and walks. They do have seven players with double-digit longballs, but their capacity for racking up runs is low by their on-base numbers.

Similarly, Florida’s pitching thrived in some categories and struggled in others. 10th in the country in K/9 but 158th in ERA, UF is a mixed bag from the starters to the bullpen. Friday arm Brandon Neely has given up runs, but he also rung up 93 batters and dropped a respectable 1.32 WHIP. Caglianone may have 100 miles-per-hour in him, but he’s had trouble throwing strikes over the last year. No one else in the room pitched well enough to secure the Saturday spot, and only Fisher Jameson was consistently reliable out of the bullpen.

Despite plenty of internal shortcomings and a crowded bubble, the benefit of the doubt surely had a hand in ensuring UF’s trip to the Stillwater Regional. The Gators would reward the committee’s choice by upsetting No. 11 Oklahoma State on the road, and outlasting No. 6 Clemson in a thrilling Super Regional. On the back of Caglianone, O’Sullivan now brings his ninth Gators group to Omaha.

How They Can Win It All: While they haven’t shown it on the field as often as expected, this roster is choc-full of elite baseball talent. At their best, almost anyone in the orange and blue can produce in their role at a high level. While Caglianone has done it for a long time, others such as Ashton Wilson, Michael Robertson, and Tyler Shelnut have been delivering in the postseason and lengthening the Gator order as of late. Caglianone and Neely have awesome stuff, and can blow hitters away with high velocity and drop some knee-bending breaking stuff. Their top players are as good as anyone else’s, and if they realize that potential, which they seemed to be scratching the last two weeks, they may be finding their stride at the perfect time.

Why They Won’t: No one knows if their bats have really turned a corner. There had been little production behind Caglianone all spring, and while they Gators have been swinging it in their five-game winning streak, the larger sample size suggests they won’t keep it up. Teams can pitch around Caglianone, and statistics will tell you it hasn’t really come back to bite anyone. One or two trustworthy options in relief isn’t exactly a plus either.

X-Factor: Everyone in the lineup not named Caglianone. He has been Florida’s offense, and one-man shows rarely make it this far in college baseball. The UF bats are the quietest by runs of whose left, but they scored 10 or more runs in both games at Clemson last weekend. Whether or not they keep picking up slack offensively will be a tipping point for UF.