National League Awards: 

MVP: Shohei Ohtani DH 

When Shohei Ohtani signed his convoluted and record-breaking 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers this past offseason there were lofty expectations. Ohtani was coming off his second American League MVP season where the two-way player posted an alien-like 8.9 fWAR. Still, there were some concerns about how he would perform after undergoing his second major elbow surgery and being confined to a DH-only role for 2024. 

To put it simply, no one is concerned anymore. Ohtani hit a NL-leading 29 home runs in the first half, stole 23 bases and put up a .316/.400/.635 triple slash for a league-leading 1.036 OPS, good for a 186 wRC+, 17 points above second-place Bryce Harper. 

Despite not playing any defense, Ohtani’s 5.2 fWAR is not only nearly an entire win over second-place Elly De La Cruz’s 4.4, but also an entire win over his 4.2 offensive fWAR that he had at this point last year. Ohtani has somehow become even more dominant in the box. 

Frankly, no one comes close to Ohtani at this point of the season. It would take an extremely unfortunate injury or an unthinkable decline for anyone else to win the actual MVP Award at the season's end. If Ohtani does become the MVP he will be the first player to win the award as a DH-only player. 

Cy Young: Chris Sale LHP

Coming into 2024, it looked like the days of Chris Sale dominating were gone. He pitched only 48.1 innings across 2021 and 2022, and in 102.2 innings pitched across 20 starts last year he was an about league-average pitcher. The Boston Red Sox shipped him over to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, a young player with a mixed bag of success in parts of two MLB seasons. The fact that Grissom was the only player in a trade for the then seven-time All-Star showed just how the mighty had seemingly fallen. Sale was expected to be a middle-to-backend of the rotation arm and there wasnt’t a ton of expectations heading into the year. 

Over his first four starts Sale had a 4.38 ERA and it looked like he was going to have a similar season to the year prior. 

In his fifth start though, a switch was flipped. Sale went seven innings, struck out six and only gave up one on two hits and a walk against the Cleveland Guardians. 

After that start, Sale has posted a 2.30 ERA in 78.1 innings pitched across 13 games. 

In the first half as a whole, Sale has a 2.70 ERA, the best in the NL. He also leads the league in  ERA- (65), FIP (2.23), SIERA (2.68), is second in WHIP (0.955) and BB/9 (1.96) and is third in both strikeouts (140) and K/9 (11.45). His 110 innings pitched also put him amongst the league leaders. These stats help give him his NL-leading 3.7 fWAR. 

Sale has looked like his old self, and if he can stay healthy he has a good shot of winning his first Cy Young award at the age of 35, after most people wrote him off. 

Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes RHP

Paul Skenes might be having the best 12 or so months anyone has ever had. That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but it has been extremely impressive. 

Skenes won the 2023 College World Series with Louisiana State University, punctuating an amazing collegiate career that led to him getting drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates first overall. Skenes only pitched 34 innings in the minor leagues before getting called up to the show on May 11. 

Skenes was a mixed bag in his first start, he threw 100 MPH or higher on 20 of his 84 pitches and was making batters miss, but he was also credited with giving up three runs in his four innings pitched. In his next 10 starts though, he only gave up two or more runs three times. 

On the year he has a 1.90 ERA, a 2.57 FIP, a 12.08 K/9, a 0.92 FIP and a 46 ERA-, leading all rookie pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched in those categories. 

With just 66 innings pitched, Skenes doesn’t come close to the rookie leaders, but he has been so dominant that it shouldn’t matter. Skenes hasn’t just been the best rookie pitcher in the NL, since his debut he’s been the best pitcher in all of baseball. 

Even on the offensive side, no one comes close to Skenes' dominance. It would be unfair to hold the Pirates' decision to keep him in the minor leagues for so long against him, especially when on pure value he has almost caught up to Shota Imanaga and Joey Ortiz’s tie for the NL rookie fWAR lead with 2.1 versus 2.3 in much less time. 

American League Awards: 

MVP: Aaron Judge CF 

We all knew that Aaron Judge hitting behind Juan Soto would be dangerous, but he’s matching - if not doing better than - his 2022 MVP season that seemed impossible to top. 

Judge is leading the American League in home runs (34), RBIs (85), OBP (.433), SLG (.679), and wRC+ (207), all while playing center field. His defense out there hasn’t been great, in fact, it grades out as a little below average, but his offense is so valuable it doesn’t really matter. Judge leads the AL in fWAR ahead of Gunnar Henderson (6.4 to 6.2) whose two teams seem likely to fight each other for the AL East division crown for the rest of the year. 

In 2022, the year Judge broke the AL single-season home run record and won his MVP award, his first-half stats were 33 home runs, 70 RBIs, .364 OBP, .618 SLG and a 175 wRC+ for 4.8 fWAR. That shows you just how special Judge’s first half has been this year, and what he could do if he can keep this play up in the second half. 

Cy Young: Tarik Skubal LHP

Not a lot has gone right for the Tigers in 2024. In a year where the squad hoped to take a step forward they’ve stagnated. They currently sit at 47-50, 12 games out of their division and seven games back from a Wild Card spot. Former Arizona State star slugger turned number one overall pick Spencer Torkelson had to be sent back down to the minors after struggling to the tune of a 69 wRC+. Javier Baez, who signed a 6-year, $140 million contract prior to the 2022 season, is the sixth worst player in baseball by fWAR amongst players with 200 or more plate appearances. Kenta Maeda, who was supposed to be a stable veteran, has an ERA near seven. But amongst the disgusting performances are a few bright stars, and none shine brighter than Tarik Skubal, not just on the team, but perhaps in the entire league. 

Similar things could be said about Garrett Crochet and his Chicago White Sox. Crochet is having the best season of anybody on the putrid southside team who went into the All-Star break with a 27-77 record, the worst in the MLB. 

Skubal and Crochet were near neck and neck in the first half of the season, making it difficult to choose one to be more deserving than the other, but Skubal might deserve it just a little bit more. 

Crochet leads the AL in K/9 with 12.58 (Skubal is third with 10.86), FIP at 2.36 (Skubal is second at 2.57), xERA at 2.44 (Skubal is second at 2.70), xFIP at 2.40 (Skubal is second at 2.71), SIERA at 2.46 (Skubal is second at 2.76) and fWAR at 3.9 (Skubal is second at 3.5)

Skubal only leads the AL in ERA with his sitting at 2.41. Crochet is down in 10th place at 3.02. Skubal however is also ahead of Crochet in WHIP (0.88 versus 0.95), ERA- (60 versus 74) and innings pitched (116 versus 107.1, and Crochet had one more start than Skubal did). 

Although Crochet leads in more categories I have to give the nod to Skubal, in large part due to the big difference in ERA and ERA-.

ERA isn’t a perfect stat as it takes more than just a pitcher to limit runs, but run prevention is the name of the game at the end of the day. Crochet’s expected stats may show that he has a shot of having better results than Skubal in the future, but awards are given based on performance, even if regression should be expected.  

And it wasn’t just the ERA though. The fact that Skubal pitches deeper into games on average and because Skubal was right behind Crochet in the stats that he leads made a big difference in the end as well. If Crochet was just a little bit closer in ERA the award would’ve been his. 

Either way though, these are two exciting lefties who are both bright spots on their respective bad teams, who could get traded at the deadline. As long as they each get traded to an AL team or stay put this could be the closest race for an actual award at year's end. 

Rookie of the Year: Mason Miller RHP

Mason Miller is another young pitcher for a bad American league team who is making a name for himself in a weaker 2024 AL rookie class. But even in a different year you would have to at least acknowledge what Miller is doing. 

As a relief pitcher it’s hard to win any award besides the obvious reliever of the year, but Miller’s dominance ignores convention. The 25-year-old right hander averages 101 on his fastball. Averages, not reaches. The fastest he’s gotten up to this year is 104 MPH. So what does he do with the help of that fastball?

What he does is strikeout 46.7% of batters he faces, walking only 9.3% as well, giving him the best strikeout-walk ratio not just amongst rookies, but in the entire AL with at least 20 innings pitched. His FIP and ERA are second amongst AL rookies at 1.67 and 2.27. 

Being a reliever, just one or two bad appearances can make you look worse than you truly are in terms of ERA. If you remove Miller’s three worst outings out of his 33 games pitched his ERA drops to an otherworldly 0.75. 

Even with just a fraction of the innings Mason Miller’s 1.8 fWAR is just behind Luis Gil’s 2.1 rookie leading mark. 

Gil was the closest competition against Miller, but due to Gil’s major inconsistencies this year compared to Miller's extreme dominance apart from just 3.2 innings pitched, Miller got the award. 

If Mason Miller can continue his first half success and win the Rookie of the Year award it would be the cherry on top of an amazing story for the former D-III pitcher who excelled following a type-1 diabetes diagnosis.