Kansas City Chiefs: Contenders

No matter the injuries, no matter the schedule- the Chiefs are inevitable. The way they’ve completely changed their offense since the Tyreek Hill trade has been incredible to watch. As two-high safety looks have been growing in popularity (Mel Kiper close your eyes) the Chiefs have been the team to zag the hardest of all the NFL offenses. Sure, they’ll hit the occasional deep shot, but they’re 24th in the league in explosive play rate. (plays of 20+ yards) But they’ve turned their offense into an efficiency-driven machine. They rank second in drop-back success rate and first in rushing success rate. (Success rate = 6 yards per pass and 4 yards per rush.) Just a few years ago, this offense was throwing over the head of every defense they played and putting up Madden-like stats. Defenses took that away and all it did was turn the Chiefs into the most efficient offense in football.

Defensively, the Chiefs have the best rush defense in the league. Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal are amazing athletes and great run-stoppers. Chris Jones moves all around the defensive line and paired with George Karlaftis, who’s emerged as one of the premier edge rushers in the NFL, creates an elite run defense. Steve Spagnolo is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, specializing in his pressure packages and blitzing at the seventh-highest rate.

Houston Texans: Pretenders (Right now)

I preface this by saying right now because this team, especially the offense, has been crushed by injuries. But this team has some unsolvable problems that are hard to work around, even with a healthy Nico Collins coming soon. According to ESPN Analytics, the Texans' offensive line is 25th in pass block win rate and 30th in run block win rate. Stroud is 19th in attempted depth of target at 19th, he was sixth last year. This offense isn’t functioning at the level it should be right now, 20th in EPA per play, 25th in success rate, 30th in rush EPA and success rate. The defense has been outstanding at first in the league in success rate, but if the offense can’t pick up the slack, this team won’t go far in the playoffs. I think Nico Collins will help a lot, but if you’ve seen any Texans ggamesrecently, you’ve seen how atrocious this offensive line has been.

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Pretender you don’t want to play

Every year we think, “Okay this is FINALLY the year the Steelers go under five hundred.” And every year, we see them at the top of the standings. Mike Tomlin is a miracle worker and once again, the Steelers are leading their division.

I think putting Russel Wilson in for Justin Fields was the right move, Wilson gives you a much more effective passing attack, but Fields just doesn’t have the consistent accuracy that Wilson does. Wilson is the stereotypical quarterback for a defensive-minded head coach- safe with the ball, not overly aggressive and can control the game at the line of scrimmage. The run game has picked up in recent weeks, Najee Harris is playing as well as ever and this offense is doing enough to drag themselves to victory while the defense carries the load. Rookie center Zach Frazier has been a key starter in the middle of that offense from day one. Not many people will mention him unless you're deep in the football media trenches, but look out for him the next time the Steelers play.

There isn’t much to say about the Steelers' defense that isn’t widely known. T.J. Watt is one of the best in the league and he’s surrounded by guys like Alex Highsmith, Cam Heyward and Keanu Benton, a group that ranks second in the league in rushing EPA per play. Their pass defense hasn’t been amazing, but it’s getting the job done.

The reason I list them as pretenders is that I don’t think this offense has enough firepower to keep up with the other great teams on this list. The dream scenario is they run the ball well, let Wilson unleash his beautiful deep ball once in a few drives and back to running the ball, and have their defense control the game. That’s a tough thing to do consistently, something we’ve seen with this team for close to a decade now. But if the Steelers pull a division title out of thin air and matchup with the Texans in round one? I think I’m picking the Steelers.

Buffalo Bills: Contenders

If the season ended today, I feel comfortable saying Josh Allen would be the MVP. Between what he’s doing through the air- First in EPA per play and ninth in success rate, along with his dynamic rushing attack have combined in a career year for Allen. The growth in Allen, much like Mahomes in recent years, is seeing how he’s turned into a defense-reading robot. He’s not forcing any throws, just throwing his first interception on the year Sunday in Seattle. If you were to tell me three years ago Josh Allen would go eight weeks without throwing a pick, I’d think you’re insane, but here we are.

The most promising part of this Bills offense has been the run game. Between James Cook and rookie Ray Davis, who’s been an awesome backup so far, along with creative play calling has made the Bills more explosive through the ground. They are fifth in EPA per rush and 10th in success rate, creating a perfect balance of setting up manageable second and third downs, as well as big-play ability.

The defense is top 10 in every EPA and success rate stat, which is terrifying for NFL offenses considering they’re down to multiple backup linebackers. The defensive line has stepped up as they’re fourth in run-stop win rate, and those backups have played well in relief of Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano, who will improve an already elite defense once they’re healthy. Sean McDermott has this defense playing at a high level, and they’ll need it with the schedule they have coming up. After Miami next week they have four weeks of the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams and Lions. If they are who we think they are, they’ll prove it soon enough.

Denver Broncos: Pretenders

They’re like the Steelers from a different dimension. The Broncos very well may have the best defense in the league. They are headlined by an elite secondary of Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss and Ja’Quan MacMilian. They’re number one in dropback EPA by a mile, teams cannot pass on the Broncos. The run defense has been solid, but Zack Allen (No. 1 in pass rush win rate!) and D.J. Jones especially have been awesome this season. For my money, this is the best defense in the league, but this offense…

I do see a good quarterback somewhere in Bo Nix. He’s accurate, athletic and quarterbacks an offense that is notoriously not easy to quarterback for. But when you see him drop a pass directly between two wide-open receivers, it’s demoralizing watching it from your couch, imagine how those receivers feel.

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Denver is 11th in rush EPA and fifth in rush success rate, their committee of running backs has been playing well. Their offensive line is seventh in run block win rate and first in pass block win rate. The Broncos are a good team, I do not doubt that. But I can picture Denver traveling to Buffalo, their playoff matchup if the season ended today, and getting their doors blown off. I think they’re a year away, this defense is keeping them in games they shouldn’t be in, but I don’t think they have the juice to compete with the big dogs this season.

Baltimore Ravens: Contenders with a major flaw

The Ravens sure are a weird team. Blow the Bills out, lose to the Raiders at home and let the Browns throw all over you in an upset loss. Before talking about the specifics of Baltimore, everything on this team goes through Lamar Jackson. He’ll always get credit for his rushing ability, but what really sets him apart is the mental side of things. Like any of the other elite quarterbacks you think of, Jackson is as smart and as surgical as any of them.

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The offense as a whole has been elite this season. They’re second in total EPA and success rate. Derrick Henry has been one of the most efficient runners in the league, and the duo of Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman headline the best-receiving corps Jackson has had in his career. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are one of the best tight end duos in the league, and the offensive line is top 10 in pass and run block win rate. An elite offense headline by an elite quarterback with an elite playcaller.

The defense, at times, has been a total disaster. Let’s start with the good- one of the best run defenses in the league. They can go seven deep on the d-line with one of the best in the business Roquan Smith patrolling the field behind them. The glaring problem is the pass defense. For a team with multiple pro bowlers in the secondary, being 28th in dropback EPA is unacceptable. It cost them against the Browns and it’ll cost them in the playoffs if they can’t fix it. Zachary Orr is the new defensive coordinator replacing Mike MacDonald, and their defensive staff got raided by other teams trying to copy what they did on defense a year ago. MacDonald struggled early on in 2023, so there should be some leeway with Orr, but it’s running out soon. This offense is too good to waste on another disappointing playoff exit.

Indianapolis Colts: Must-watch TV

The Chargers currently hold the seventh and final playoff spot as of now, but they’re an exact copy of half the AFC playoff picture right now- middling offense, insane defense, and probably a first-round exit. The Colts, on the other hand, I truly don’t think I’ve ever seen a team like this one. They play fever dream football, led by their fever-dream quarterback. Anthony Richardson is last in completion percentage by 16% at 47.2%! He’s last by far in completion percentage over expectation at -14.6, Richardson and Spencer Rattler are the only ones lower than -2.5. But he leads the NFL in air yards per attempt at 13.1, the next closest is Brock Purdy at 9.5. He plays football like how people play Madden. It’s so unique and insane at times to watch. There’s no other offense that plays like this and it’s been unsustainable. There’s been talks about Richardson being benched by Joe Flacco, which I think would be a massive overreaction. Richardson just finished his 10th career start, he needs to be reigned in a bit but the talent is there.

Defensively, it’s a Gus Bradley defense, meaning it’s an outrageous amount of Cover 3. They’re stopping the run at a high level, not exactly the story through the air though. After the next few weeks, their schedule softens up a bunch. If the defense can carry the dead weight the offense leaves them, the Colts could sneak into the playoffs as a dangerous wild-card team. The odds of them getting there aren’t nearly as high as the preseason expectations were though.