Another year, another Oscar’s season. 2024 was filled with big blockbusters, surprise hits, and remakes with differing levels of quality, a reflection of the film industry today. But above all that, 2024 was simply a great year for film, which makes this year's Academy Awards ceremony even more action-packed. It’s also hard to ignore that the great Conan O’Brien will be hosting this year, a stark improvement from Jimmy Kimmel’s hosting over the last few years.
This year, I was able to see every movie nominated for Best Picture, along with a majority of the films nominated in major categories. I will show the nominees, who I think will win, and who I think should win to give some of my perspective. With that out of the way, let’s get into it!
BEST PICTURE
“Anora”
Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers
“The Brutalist”
Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers
“A Complete Unknown”
Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers
“Conclave”
Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers
“Dune: Part Two”
Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers
“Emilia Pérez”
Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers
“I'm Still Here”
Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers
“Nickel Boys”
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers
“The Substance”
Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Producers
“Wicked”
Marc Platt, Producer
Who I think will win: “Conclave”, Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers
Who I think should win: “Dune: Part Two”, Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers
When I first saw “Conclave,” it was a pleasant surprise that had me on the edge of my seat. But I would have never expected it to have the impact it has had this awards season. Alas, the film has clearly connected with a large group of people, and the starpower of Ralph Fiens and Stanley Tucci no doubt helps the case. “Conclave” has slowly built itself up as a Best Picture contender, and I would not be surprised if the cast and crew are standing on the stage at the end of the night, Oscar in hand.
Though I loved “Conclave”, there is simply no movie that moved me more than “Dune: Part Two”. I know what you’re thinking: “Did he seriously pick a blockbuster as his favorite film of the year?” Well, yes, yes I did. Because “Dune: Part Two” is not just a blockbuster. It is a revolutionary science fiction film, in the same vein as sci-fi essentials “2001: A Space Odyssey” and “Blade Runner”. The cinematography blew me away, as did the fantastic direction from Denis Villeneuve. The characters have clear motivations, the story is paced well, the music is used at the perfect moments, and the action is gripping. There is not a part of “Dune: Part Two” that is underbaked. The film is never boring, never cheesy, and is unbelievably rewatchable (evidenced by the four times I saw it in theaters last year). Though it will not win – for the crime of being a big-budget box office smash – there is no movie nominated this year that will stand the test of time as well as “Dune: Part Two”. Be on the lookout for “Dune: Part Two” anniversary screenings everywhere in 10 years.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave”
Sebastian Stan
“The Apprentice”
Who I think will win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Who I think should win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Adrien Brody has had an interesting career since winning the Best Actor award for “The Pianist” back in 2003. Brody jumped around from big blockbuster to small indie film, with Wes Anderson films thrown in throughout, as well as the occasional TV show. With “The Brutalist,” Brody went back to the roots that carried him to the Oscar in 2003. As László Tóth, Brody displayed his incredible range as an actor, creating a fictional character that I felt truly alive. Though the film is long, Brody takes the opportunity to build on his character, first as a poor Jewish-Hungarian immigrant with no prospects, to the eventual tortured artist we come to see near the middle of the film, to Tóth’s eventual downfall. His performance holds the film up and improves everyone around him, which should be celebrated widely by the film community. It is why I believe he both should and will win for Best Actor in a leading role.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison
“Anora”
Demi Moore
“The Substance”
Fernanda Torres
“I'm Still Here”
Who I think will win: Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Who I think should win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
This category is also a very tight one; at this point, it’s anyone’s game. But Mikey Madison has been dominating award ceremonies since Cannes, and it seems as if her momentum is still going strong. This is Madison’s first Oscar nomination in a movie where she really gets to shine. Anora is an incredibly well-played character, who the audience feels both sympathetic and a bit annoyed with. It is focused completely on her, which allows the audience to witness her growth, or perhaps lack thereof. But for now, it seems like Madison’s award to lose.
Though Madison was fantastic, I don’t think there was a better performance this year than Demi Moore in “The Substance.” Moore is known for her roles in 90’s classics like “Ghost” and “Striptease”, and had been mostly inactive in the film industry until recently. Her performance as Elizabeth Sparkle is a sharp turn from the roles she previously held, in the best way possible. It does help that the character is similar to Moore in many ways (that being an actress who is past her prime), but it does not take away from the absolute powerhouse performance she gives in “The Substance.” Moore transforms into Sparkle and then into something much, much worse. It is hard to describe how great her performance is, it’s simply one of those things that must be seen with your own two eyes to understand. Hopefully, her landmark performance will get her bigger roles in films once again.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Yura Borisov
“Anora”
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain”
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong
“The Apprentice”
Who I think will win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Who I think should win: Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Who knew “Succession” would be so well represented this awards season? I’m sure Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong sure didn’t! “A Real Pain” is a fine movie with nice cinematography and a pretty good script, but what brings it up a level is Culkin’s performance as Benji Kaplan. He is witty and funny, yet all over the place and lost in life. It is the character Culkin was born to play and the highlight of the whole film. He has been sweeping this awards season, and I would expect it again this Sunday.
Now, onto the other Roy brother. “The Apprentice” is not getting nearly as much attention as it deserves. It was one of my favorite films of the year, and Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong are the main reasons why. Strong completely transforms into Roy Cohn, the brutal, no-nonsense lawyer who created the Donald Trump we know today. Friends of the real Cohn have said that Strong’s performance was scarily accurate, but to me, it doesn’t matter. Whether it is or is not, Strong fills up the screen every second he is on it. It’s impossible to take your eyes off his blank stare and cold demeanor. Though “The Apprentice” is unlikely to win anything (the current administration would make it difficult), Strong’s performance should absolutely be recognized and will hopefully give him more work as a lead in the future.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande
“Wicked”
Felicity Jones
“The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez”
Who I think will win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Who I think should win: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Now is the time I am forced to speak about “Emilia Pérez”. I do not like the movie, the music, or most of the performances. I think it is a poor representation of transgender people and is a weak commentary on drug cartels in Mexico. But if there is one high point of the film, it is Zoe Saldaña’s performance as Rita Mora Castro. She has the best songs, gives the strongest performance, and is the audience's eyes into the world of “Emilia Pérez”. Though the film around her is mediocre at best, Saldaña is the clear standout of the film. She has been winning awards throughout the season and is likely to continue her run.
This is a pretty weird category, and I think most of the nominations are quite weak. But if there is one performance that I think is truly deserving of the Oscar, it is Ariana Grande’s. “Wicked” is a fine musical, but I couldn’t help but smile every time Grande was on screen. She brought such a unique energy to the film and provided necessary comic relief throughout. Her demeanor was pompous yet caring, exactly how you would imagine Glinda in the book. As long as “Wicked: Part Two” keeps a similar energy, Grande’s performance should go down as one of the all-time great movie musical performances.
DIRECTING
“Anora”
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist”
Brady Corbet
“A Complete Unknown”
James Mangold
“Emilia Pérez”
Jacques Audiard
“The Substance”
Coralie Fargeat
Who I think will win: “The Brutalist”, Brady Corbet
Who I think should win: “The Substance”, Coralie Fargeat
Brady Corbet deserves all the flowers for “The Brutalist.” It is shot in Vistavision, which gives the film a classic ’70s feel. There are some astounding shots throughout the film, especially early on. The characters all have clear motivation, and though a three-hour 45-minute movie could easily be a grueling experience, Corbet makes it feel like two hours. It is stylistically reminiscent of the past, yet uniquely its own film. I would personally pick Corbet as my favorite to win if it were not for another movie that came out this year that has even better direction.
Coralie Fargeat knows how to make a stylish movie, there is no doubt about that. Never have I seen a film as uniquely gross as “The Substance”. Some parts are shot like a music video or workout video, and other parts like a gruesome horror movie. There is a constant sense of dread, yet the film keeps a playful tone throughout. It is such a hard thing to balance, but Fargeat did it wonderfully. The fact that she got nominated for a gross-out horror movie is even more impressive and is more evidence of how amazing her direction really is.
Welp, those are my predictions and choices for the 2025 Oscars. Now we sit back, relax, and enjoy Conan O’Brien run around the stage all night. See you next year!